By David C. Bader
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Extra info for Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations
Thus, regional simulations by these models are dependent on the model quality or on observations supplying boundary conditions. This is especially true for projections of future climate, suggesting value in performing an ensemble of simulations using multiple atmosphere-ocean global models to supply boundary conditions, thus including some of the uncertainty involved in constructing climate models and projecting future changes in boundary conditions. Careful evaluation also is necessary to show differences, if any, between the regional simulation’s large-scale circulation and its driving dataset.
Several regional models have performed simulations of climate change for parts of North America, but at present no regional projections have used an ensemble of regional models to simulate the same time periods with the same boundary conditions. Such systematic evaluation has occurred in Europe in the PRUDENCE (Christensen, Carter, and Giorgi 2002) and ENSEMBLES (Hewitt and Griggs 2004) projects and is starting in North America with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP 2007).
5 K, while the GFDL model was near the high end. This convergence in global mean sensitivity was considered coincidental because no specific actions were taken to engineer convergence. It was not accompanied by any noticeable convergence in cloud-feedback specifics or in the regional temperature changes that make up global mean values. 6 REDUCTIVE VS HOLISTIC EVALUATION OF MODELS To evaluate models, appreciation of their structure is necessary. For example, discussion of climatic response to increasing greenhouse gases is intimately related to the question of how infrared radiation escaping to space is controlled.
Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations by David C. Bader